Monday, April 8, 2013

Fantasy Baseball 2013: Mock-Draft Simulation When Holding No. 10 Pick

Here's a dry run of draft expectations when holding the No. 10 pick in a 12-team mixed roto league, specifically working off the Average Draft Position report from our friends at Mock Draft Central.

First option: 1B Prince Fielder, TigersSecond option: OF Josh Hamilton, AngelsThird option: SP Justin Verlander, Tigers

First option: OF Josh Hamilton, AngelsSecond option: SS Troy Tulowitzki, RockiesThird option: SP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

First option: SP Felix Hernandez, MarinersSecond option: 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red SoxThird option: 2B Ian Kinsler, Rangers

First option: 2B Ian Kinsler, RangersSecond option: SP Cole Hamels, PhilliesThird option: 3B/SS Hanley Ramirez, Dodgers

First option: OF Mark Trumbo, AngelsSecond option: 3B Brett Lawrie, Blue JaysThird option: 1B Freddie Freeman, Braves

First option: SP CC Sabathia, YankeesSecond option: 3B Brett Lawrie, Blue JaysThird option: 1B Freddie Freeman, Braves

First option: OF Austin Jackson, TigersSecond option: OF Alex Rios, White SoxThird option: SP Roy Halladay, Phillies

First option: RP Jonathan Papelbon, PhilliesSecond option: C Victor Martinez, TigersThird option: OF Josh Willingham, Twins

First option: 3B/OF Martin Prado, DiamondbacksSecond option: OF Josh Willingham, TwinsThird option: SP Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays

First option: SS Asdrubal Cabrera, IndiansSecond option: SP Jeff Samardzija, CubsThird option: SP Aroldis Chapman, Reds

First option: 3B Mike Moustakas, RoyalsSecond option: 3B Will Middlebrooks, Red SoxThird option: SP Mike Minor, Braves

First option: 1B/OF Michael Cuddyer, RockiesSecond option: OF Dexter Fowler, RockiesThird option: 1B Adam Dunn, White Sox

First option: RP Kenley Jansen, DodgersSecond option: RP Mariano Rivera, YankeesThird option: RP Chris Perez, Indians

1. In retrospect, I was thrilled to land two top-six assets at second base (Ian Kinsler) and shortstop (Asdrubal Cabrera)—without investing a Round 1-3 pick on either crucial spot.

2. For the second straight simulation, I was happy to grab Alex Rios after the 85th pick. In 2012, Rios (25 homers, 91 RBI, 93 runs, 23 steals, .304 batting) posted top-20 fantasy numbers (overall hitters)...without the benefit of a career year with on-base percentage (.334).

3. In The Sporting News' Ballpark Power Index, Angel Stadium ranked as the No. 20 ballpark for hitters last season, with Rangers Ballpark pulling down a No. 3 rating. So obviously, Josh Hamilton will be exhibiting his talents at a larger stadium this year (Anaheim). That aside, there's little rationale for Hamilton (43 HR, 128 RBI, .285 BA last year) plunging to the mid-20s for mock drafts. Especially since he won't have to face Angels pitching 20 times.

4. I'm a little perplexed by CC Sabathia's availability at No. 63. He has averaged 18 wins, 208 strikeouts and a sub-3.25 ERA in the last three years—and that came before the Yankees southpaw reportedly trimmed significant weight off his large frame over the winter. (Sabathia had a bone spur removed from his left elbow a few months ago.)

5. Hamilton (fifth round), Rios (15th), Austin Jackson (16th) and Mark Trumbo (20th) all hold top-20 slots in my outfielder rankings. If this were a real draft, the remaining OF spots would be filled by Martin Prado (10 HR, 70 RBI, 17 steals, .301 BA), Michael Cuddyer (annual threat for 20 homers, 70 RBI, 10 steals) and high-upside prospects like Wil Myers, Oscar Taveras and Adam Eaton.

6. It wasn't covered here, but there are plenty of quality starting pitchers for Rounds 19 through 25—Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Michael Fiers, Marco Estrada, A.J. Griffin, Brandon McCarthy, Tommy Hanson, Chris Carpenter, Shawn Marcum, Ricky Romero, Cory Luebke, Clayton Richard, Andrew Cashner, Jason Hammel and likely phenoms Brandon Beachy (coming off elbow surgery—grab him off waivers in June), Dylan Bundy and Trevor Bauer.

7. Buster Posey currently owns a No. 10 ADP. But in leagues that require only one starting catcher, it makes little sense to invest a Round 1 pick on the reigning NL MVP—unless you're starting him at first base for the majority of the season.

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